Research and projectsResearch groups

Research groups at IBA FM MU Predictions of Cancer Burden

Leader of the research group Leader of the research group: Tomáš Pavlík, Ph.D.

The group of Predictions of Cancer Burden at the Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses at the Faculty of Medicine of the Masaryk University (IBA FM MU) predicts the population burden of cancer in the Czech Republic.

Leader of the research group:

Tomáš Pavlík, Ph.D.

Tomáš Pavlík, Ph.D.


There is a strong need for prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates, as these measures are necessary for a responsible planning for costs related to cancer care. The Czech Society of Oncology and IBA MU have therefore developed an information system which employs data from population records, clinical registries, and data provided by a panel of clinical experts to predict the epidemiological burden of cancer in the Czech Republic in the years to come. More specifically, the objective of this project is to prospectively estimate the number of cancer patients requiring effective anticancer treatment for all main cancer diagnoses.

The underlying model has been designed with respect to the extent of the disease because, as regards the patients’ life expectancy and the anticipated final costs of the treatment, the clinical stage is often the most decisive factor. Estimation of cancer prevalence is not straightforward: it cannot be estimated directly from population-based data because the verified records in the Czech National Cancer Registry are retrospective (the latest records describe the situation about 3 years ago at any given time), and has to be modelled. However, modelling cancer incidence and prevalence is only the first step in the estimation process focused on potentially treated patients; the prevalence estimates need to be further adjusted for patients untreated for whatever reason (survival of patients diagnosed and treated in the past must be taken into account, as well as treatment contraindication, patient’s refusal to treatment, advanced stage of the disease, etc.).

The first part of the estimated number of future patients requiring anticancer treatment is based on the incidence rates of a cancer which is adjusted using the percentage of actually treated patients; this proportion can be obtained from the Czech National Cancer Registry. The second part of the estimated number of possibly treated patients is calculated using the number of patients diagnosed in the past, and combining it with the probability of their survival in the given year. The estimated prevalence of previously diagnosed patients is then used to estimate the number of patients whose primary disease would probably recur or progress and who might, therefore, also need anticancer treatment.

Selected publications

  • Dušek L, Pavlík T, Májek O, Büchler T, Mužík J, Malúšková D, Koptíková J, Bortlíček Z, Abrahámová J. Estimating cancer incidence, prevalence, and the number of cancer patients treated with anti-tumor therapy in 2015 and 2020 – analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry. Klinická onkologie 2015; 28(1): 30-43. doi: 10.14735/amko201530.
  • Pavlík T, Májek O, Mužík J, Koptíková J, Slavíček L, Fínek J, Feltl D, Vyzula R, Dušek L. Estimating the number of colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-tumour therapy in 2015: the analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry. BMC Public Health 2012; 12: 117. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-117.
  • Dušek L, Pavlík T, Májek O, Koptíková J, Gelnarová E, Mužík J, Vyzula R, Fínek J. Information System for Predictive Evaluation of Cancer Epidemiology and the Number of Cancer Patients in the Czech Republic. In Czech Cancer Care in Numbers 2008–2009. Praha: Grada Publishing, a.s., 2009. 19 s. ISBN 978-80-247-3244-2.